23.05.2008 09:45

Forex: Thursday results


The dollar snapped two days of declines against the euro, rallying from the lowest level in a month, as traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by year-end and oil retreated.
The U.S. currency also gained versus the yen after minutes of the Fed's April meeting yesterday showed most policy makers viewed the cut in the target rate to 2 percent as ``a close call,'' indicating the central bank has gone on hold to stem inflation.
U.S. house prices fell less than expected in the first quarter. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said its house price purchase index declined 0.2 percent, after rising 0.3 percent the previous quarter. The median forecast in a survey of 13 economists was for a drop of 1.3 percent.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show traders see a 92 percent likelihood the Fed will keep its target rate for overnight lending between banks at 2 percent on June 25, up from odds of 88 percent yesterday. Traders also see a 32 percent probability the Fed will lift the rate in September to 2.25 percent, up from a 21 percent chance yesterday.
The dollar has fallen 2 percent against the euro since May 8, after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said inflation remains the bank's top priority. That signaled policy makers won't cut the 4 percent benchmark interest rate soon.
The pound rose to a three-week high against the dollar after a government report showed U.K. retail sales declined less than forecast in April.

EUR/USD fell fromn $1.5780/1.5815 to $1.5690.
GBP/USD firmed from $1.9680/1.9710 to a high at $1.9850 but failed to break above and closed near $1.9800.
USD/JPY rose from a low at Y102.70 to Y104.35/40.

European data for Friday starts at 0645GMT with French Aprilconsumer manufacturing spending, which is followed at 0800GMT by the Eurozone May flash manufacturing and services PMIs. Manufacturing is seen slipping to 50.3 with services also slipping to 51.7 for the flash measure. UK data at 0830GMT sees the index of services data as well as the second release of Q1 GDP, which is expected to remain unrevised at 0.4% q/q and 2.5% y/y.
US data sees just existing home sales for April at 1400GMT, which are expected to slow to a 4.85 million annual rate in April.






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