19.08.2008 10:14

FOREX. Monday summary [M]

As on Monday hasn’t publications of the important fundamental data, the major currency pairs consolidated in narrow ranges.
The dollar fell from a seven-month high against the yen and declined versus currencies in New Zealand and Australia on speculation its recent rally is too fast to sustain.
The U.S. currency retreated from its strongest level in almost six months against the euro before housing and inflation reports that may add to speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. The greenback has gained 8.4 percent versus the euro since touching the record low in July on evidence economies outside the U.S. are slowing.
The dollar will trade in a range of $1.45 to $1.50 in the next two weeks, Kassel said.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 21 percent chance the U.S. central bank will increase the 2 percent target rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter- percentage point by its Dec. 16 meeting, down from 47 percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers next meet Sept. 16.
U.S. housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 960,000 in July, the fewest in 17 years, according to the median forecast of 75 economists before the Commerce Department's report today.
The Labor Department will report tomorrow that the producer price index probably climbed 0.6 percent in July after increasing 1.8 percent the prior month, according to the median forecast of 75 economists.

EUR/USD
printed highs around $1.4767, then to break above $1.4700 to session lows jn around $1.4670.

GBP/USD consolidated within the $1.8630-$1.8720 ranges then showed session lows around $1.8620.
USD/JPY set stable around Y110.50-Y109.90.

In Europe attention will be on Germany ZEW economic expectations index (August) (09:00 GMT), that may weight on euro. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research's index of investor and analyst expectations was minus 62 in August, according to the median of forecast. That's near last month's minus 63.9, the lowest since the survey began in 1991. ZEW releases the report at 11 a.m. in Mannheim. Meanwhile, dollar’s rise may be capped ahead US PPI (12:30 GMT).






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