15.05.2008 19:40

Merrill Lynch released their 2008-2009 FX forecasts, with few changes.

They continue to look for "a general US dollar recovery against many G-10 currencies" and maintain that "for H2 2008, the weakness in the US economy has mostly been factored into the dollar, while the deterioration elsewhere should be built in." The dollar may rebound even though the US economy is likely to remain relatively weak. Their end of June, Sept and December euro forecasts remain unchanged at $1.55, $1.51 and $1.48 respectively, but their 2009 forecasts (March, June, Sept, Dec) have been raised to $1.42, $1.40, $1.38 and $1.33 from $1.40, $1.33, $1.30 and $1.28. In dollar-yen, a currency pair where the greenback will not be as buoyant, Merrill's June, Sept and Dec 2008 forecast is now Y103, Y103 and Y102 vs Y102 in all three periods previously. Their 2009 dollar-yen forecasts (March, June, Sept Dec) remain unchanged at Y100, Y98, Y98, Y98.






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