21.05.2008 22:04

Apr 29-30 FOMC minutes say most members saw -25bp as a 'close call' and inflation/growth-slide risks are "now thought to be more closely balanced" due to all the ease in the system.

Several members said no more ease unless data indicate "a significant weakening." Text also says mkts improved and econ data were as expected, though housing continued to weaken and infl data were mixed. FOMC is worried about up-drift of infl expectations. There was little change in staff econ forecasts, tho FOMC lowered theirs (see below). Dissenters: Plosser worried about fast money supply growth, Fisher concerned about "adverse feedback loop" where lower FF lowers US$ and raises import prices and inflation. Apr Econ Projections: '08 real GDP ests lowered to +0.3-1.2% (was +1.3-2.0% in Jan); core PCE prices now 2.2-2.4% (was 2.0-2.2% in Jan) but expected to decelerate in 2009-10. Unemploymt remains high. Risks are for lower growth, higher unemployment.






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