ML Economist David Rosenberg says monthly data show US GDP peaked in
January "and actually has fallen at a 4% annual rate since then. That
coupled with four months in a row of negative payrolls and a 5%
annualized decline in real retail sales since last October seals the
deal on the recession call. This means that we are as early in this
phase as we were in the spring of 2001, the summer of 1990 or the fall
of 1981."