"We see two reasons to believe that the bottom for housing activity
is coming closer. First, with new home sales now close to our
long-standing target of 500,000 (annualized), there are ome signs of
stabilization in home demand. Second, on a like-for-like basis,
housing starts are now running below new home sales, by an amount that
is comparable to that seen at the bottom of past housing downturns."
Still they call for starts to fall 200k to 750k annualized.