"We see two reasons to believe that the bottom for housing activity is
coming closer. First, with new home sales now close to our long-standing
target of 500,000 (annualized), there are ome signs of stabilization in home
demand. Second, on a like-for-like basis, housing starts are now running
below new home sales, by an amount that is comparable to that seen at the
bottom of past housing downturns." Still they call for starts to fall 200k
to 750k annualized.