"We see two reasons to believe that the bottom for housing activity is coming closer. First, with new home sales now close to our long-standing target of 500,000 (annualized), there are ome signs of stabilization in home demand. Second, on a like-for-like basis, housing starts are now running below new home sales, by an amount that is comparable to that seen at the bottom of past housing downturns." Still they call for starts to fall 200k to 750k annualized.