HFE
economist Ian Shepherdson: "ISM manufacturing index rose to 49.6 from
48.5, a bit above the consensus, 48.5. The plunge in auto production in
recent months threatened to push the ISM down sharply but strength
elsewhere appears to have offset it. New export orders rose to a
three-year high of 59.5, up from 57.5. This is dead in line with the
performance implied by the weakening of the dollar over the past year
and will likely persist for a few more months yet. This helped boost
overall orders, which rose to 49.7 from 46.5, and production, up to
51.2 from 49.1. But employment was little changed at a weak 45.5;
export gains are not enough to offset productivity growth so manuf jobs
are still being lost. Overall, soft but not catastrophic; but remember
this is a deeply atypical, consumer-led downturn."