HFE economist Ian Shepherdson: "ISM manufacturing index rose to 49.6 from
48.5, a bit above the consensus, 48.5. The plunge in auto production in recent
months threatened to push the ISM down sharply but strength elsewhere appears
to have offset it. New export orders rose to a three-year high of 59.5, up from
57.5. This is dead in line with the performance implied by the weakening of the
dollar over the past year and will likely persist for a few more months yet.
This helped boost overall orders, which rose to 49.7 from 46.5, and production,
up to 51.2 from 49.1. But employment was little changed at a weak 45.5; export
gains are not enough to offset productivity growth so manuf jobs are still
being lost. Overall, soft but not catastrophic; but remember this is a deeply
atypical, consumer-led downturn."