"Inflation, not slow growth, is the primary threat to the US economy. The CPI is up 4.2% versus a year ago and up at a 4.9% annual rate in the past three months. Some analysts continue to minimize the threat of higher inflation by focusing on the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices and is up only 2.3% versus a year ago. Focusing on the core makes sense when energy and food prices are volatile both up and down. In that case, core inflation helps reveal the underlying trend. But in the past six years almost all the volatility has been to the upside. In this situation, focusing on the core hides the underlying trend."