18.07.2008 15:22

European focus: Dollar heads for weekly gain as banks weather credit turmoil

The dollar headed for a weekly advance against the euro, rebounding from a record low on signs U.S. investment banks will withstand credit-market losses stemming from the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market.
The U.S. currency also rose versus the pound on speculation the U.K. government will boost borrowing as Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling introduces new spending guidelines. The yen was set for a weekly loss against the South African rand as a rally in U.S. stocks following JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s better-than-expected earnings encouraged so-called carry trades.
``We've had a big two-day rally in financial stocks in the U.S., which brought about a degree of stability Generally speaking there's a belief in the market that conditions will stabilize,'' said Derek Halpenny, head of currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. ``That's given the impetus to the dollar against the euro.''
``Currency traders are likely to take their cue from the stock market,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd., Japan's largest currency broker. ``Earnings season isn't as bad as many had feared. There will be some pressure on the yen to weaken.''
Profit at JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by market value, fell 52 percent on mortgage-related writedowns and costs from the takeover of Bear Stearns Cos. Second-quarter net income of 54 cents a share compared with expectations for 44 cents in a survey of analysts.
Citigroup EPS -$0.49, better than expected. Wells Fargo & Co., the second-biggest U.S. mortgage lender, on July 16 announced profit that beat analyst estimates. Merrill Lynch & Co., the third-biggest U.S. securities firm, fell after it yesterday reported a fourth straight quarterly loss.
Cheaper oil is still helping to support the greenback against the euro. Crude oil for August delivery is set for a record weekly drop in dollar terms, having lost more than $14 a barrel since July 11 in New York.
The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year, according to calculations based on the correlation of their value changes.






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