
Morgan Stanley strategists Sophia Drossos and Yilin Nie note that over the past 10 days WTI crude has fallen over 14%. "This includes the decline during the week, which was one of the largest in dollar terms on record," they say. In contrast, the euro fell only 1.5%. The correlation between the euro and oil prices has increased to about 23% compared with about 8% for the (1999 to present) sample period. The correlation is stronger when oil is rising (20%) than when oil is falling (15%). "...Had we been told that crude oil prices would fall $20/bbl in the span of 10 days, we would have imagined that euro-dollar would have tested the bottom of its well established trading range at $1.54 - not resting comfortably in the middle of its range," the strategists say.