04.08.2008 11:21

FOREX: weekly review

The dollar showed increasing signs of resilience last week, hitting a one-month high against the euro as evidence mounted that the effects of the credit crisis were making themselves felt across the globe. Over the week, the dollar rose 1% against the euro, climbed 0.8% against the pound. The dollar lost ground against the yen. The currency increased for a third week against the euro, its longest stretch of gains since May 2007.


The dollar’s rally came in spite of figures on Thursday that showed that US growth came in below forecast in the second quarter and data on Friday that revealed that US unemployment rose to its highest level in more than four years in July. The U.S. economy shrank at the end of 2007 and grew less than forecast in this year's second quarter, figures from the Commerce Department showed July 31.


U.S. payrolls shrank in July for a seventh straight month, decreasing by 51,000, matching the previous month's decline, the Labor Department said yesterday in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists was for a reduction of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, the highest since March 2004, from 5.5% .

Indeed, eurozone purchasing managers’ surveys suggested that the region’s services and manufacturing sectors contracted sharply in July. The 15-nation euro fell yesterday versus the dollar as Germany's Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, dropped 1.4% in June after increasing 0.5% in the prior month. The median forecast of economists was for a decrease of 0.5%.


The pound fell to $1.9727, the lowest level since July 10, as an index of British manufacturing dropped in July to the weakest since December 1998. The Bank of England is forecast to hold its target rate at 5% on Aug. 7.


The yen rose to a two-week high against the euro Thursday as slowing global growth prompted traders to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan. Japan's currency rose on speculation investors reduced carry trades in which they get funds in countries with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher. The target lending rate of 0.5% in Japan compares with 8% in New Zealand.






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