Steven Ricchiuto, VP at Handelsbank, says consensus has pushed out the timing of econ rebound into Q2 or Q3 2009. The growth optimists continue to say "a lack of excess inventory, a narrowing trade deficit, and a healthy non-financial corporate sector balance sheet assure that the economy will be able to avoid a full fledged recession." The pessimists look at "high energy prices, deteriorating labor market conditions and a broadening out of the credit crunch." He says the longer credit problems continue, the worse the outcome.