03.10.2008 21:07

American focus: dollar stable as House to vote on bailout package


The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain ever against the euro on a surge in demand for U.S. currency funding amid a worldwide credit crunch.
The greenback advanced versus the yen on speculation the U.S. House of Representatives will approve a $700 billion financial bailout after rejecting the plan Sept. 29. The government's payroll report showed the U.S. lost the most jobs in five years last month.
``Very strong demand for dollars is still evident,'' said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. Traders waited until after the payroll data to buy dollars against the euro because they wanted to ``clear the event risk,'' he said.
The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars increased to 4.33 percent, the most since January, the British Bankers' Association said. The Libor-OIS spread, a gauge of cash scarcity among banks, widened to a record.
By a vote of 223-205, the U.S. House prevented members from offering amendments that could snarl passage of the bailout. The tally signaled the plan has enough support to clear Congress and be sent to President George W. Bush to be signed into law.
At least 12 House members said they will drop their opposition to the plan and support it. The measure failed by a dozen votes earlier this week. The Senate voted 74-25 on Oct. 1 in favor of legislation that links the rescue to an increase in bank-deposit insurance limits and tax breaks.
``The scarcity of the dollar in the market is keeping it supported,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of strategy for the global markets group in Boston at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank, with more than $23 trillion in assets under administration. ``The bailout plan could take the dollar further up.''
The dollar also benefited from a ``relief rally'' today, according to Andrew Busch, a currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. He said the payroll data was not as bad as some people thought after last month's bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. sent the financial market into turmoil.
U.S. payrolls shrank by 159,000 last month, following a revised decline of 73,000 in August, the Labor Department said today in Washington. It's the biggest loss since 2003. The jobless rate stayed at 6.1 percent.
``It's not doing any good for money markets and liquidity given the real economy is starting to freeze up,'' said Alan Ruskin, head of international currency strategy in North America at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``The market is short of dollar liquidity, so the dollar remains bid.''
The euro was headed for a record weekly drop against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday policy makers discussed cutting the main refinancing rate. European economies face ``increasing downside risks,'' he said at a press conference following the decision to keep the benchmark at a seven-year high of 4.25 percent.
Five European banks including Dexia SA, the world's biggest lender to local governments, and Fortis, Belgium's largest financial-services firm, accepted government-backed bailouts this week.
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed an 84 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will cut the 2 percent target lending rate for overnight lending between banks by a half- percentage point at its Oct. 29 meeting, with the balance of bets on a reduction of 0.75 percentage point. Futures showed no chance of lower borrowing costs a month ago.






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