14.10.2008 16:48

European session:


The yen fell against higher-yielding currencies after governments in the U.S., Europe and Australia pledged to support banks, encouraging investors to increase holdings of euros, British pounds and Australian dollars.
German investor confidence dropped for the first time in three months in October, to near a record low, as the global credit crisis threatened to tip Europe into a recession.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations slumped to minus 63 from minus 41.1 in September. The gauge reached an all-time low of minus 63.9 in July. Economists expected a decline to minus 51.1.
``The financial-market turmoil is the main cause for the drop in the index,'' Sandra Schmidt, an economist at ZEW, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``There's concern that it will spread to the real economy.''
Europe's economy may be cushioned by falling oil prices, the euro's retreat and lower interest rates.
U.K. inflation quickened to the fastest pace in at least 11 years in September, squeezing consumers with higher living costs as the financial market crisis curbed the availability of credit.
Prices rose 5.2 percent from a year earlier, the most since records began in 1997, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The median forecast of economists was 5 percent. Inflation has now exceeded the Bank of England's 2 percent target for a year.
``The weakness in the economy will be more than enough to bring inflation to target,'' said Nick Kounis, an economist at Fortis in Amsterdam and a former U.K. Treasury official. ``Today's reading isn't a barrier to further rate cuts. The bank is more worried about inflation undershooting the target now.''
The pound was little changed at $1.7502 after the report. Stocks recovered for a second day after the U.K. government bailed out banks including HBOS Plc and similar measures were adopted in Europe and the U.S

EUR/USD slowly extending its rally, but reported offers between $1.3750/55 making upside progress sticky. Stops are noted on a break of $1.3755, which if triggered seen bringing the tech target range between $1.3780/00 well into view.



GBP/USD extended recovery to $1.7630, currently holding back around $1.7610 as market awaits further details of TARP. Next band of reported offers seen placed between $1.7650/60, a break above to open a move toward $1.7680 ahead of $1.7700 and stronger interest at $1.7720. Bids $1.7650.

USD/JPY extended rally before has run into offers placed around the Asian peak at Y103.10/20, with dollar-yen now consolidating gains at Y102.85. Stops noted in the Y103.30 area, with additional supply then coming in at Y103.60/70.

At 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $45.0 billion surplus in the September tax month. There are also two late Fed speakers into Wednesday morning. At 0030GMT, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is due to address the Memphis Economic Club, in Memphis, Tennessee, while at 0200GMT, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen delivers a speech on the US economic outlook.






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