31.10.2008 15:31

European session: [M]

The yen and the dollar rose, heading for record monthly gains against the euro, as signs of a global recession prompted investors to sell higher-yielding currencies.
Japan's currency also advanced after the Bank of Japan lowered interest rates by 20 basis points to 0.3 percent, compared with forecasts for a cut to 0.25 percent. The euro fell as the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg today said inflation in the 15 nations that share the currency slowed to the lowest since January, giving the European Central Bank more room to lower rates.
The yen climbed to 124.50 per euro as of 7:04 a.m. in New York from 127.31 yesterday. Against the dollar, it was at 97.58 from 98.61. The Japanese currency may trade at 95 to the dollar in the next week, Cole said. The dollar rose 1.3 percent versus the euro to $1.2743.
The yen has risen 17 percent against the euro in October, heading for it biggest monthly gain since the European currency's introduction in 1999. The dollar has gained 10.6 percent versus the euro in the month. The greenback is down 9 percent against the yen, the biggest decline since 1998, when hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management LP collapsed.
The pound weakened to $1.6203 from $1.6451. Against the Australian dollar, the yen advanced to 64.24 from 67.27. It also rose to 56.27 versus the New Zealand dollar from 58.35.
U.K. consumer confidence in October fell toward the lowest since at least 1974, London-based researcher GfK NOP Ltd. said today. The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter by the most since 2001, data showed yesterday.
Policy makers meet Nov. 6, when they will probably cut the region's main refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 3.25 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of 26 economists.
The euro stayed lower as inflation in the countries sharing the currency eased to 3.2 percent in October from 3.6 percent the month before, matching the median of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey
The yen remained higher after the BOJ lowered its benchmark rate to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent,
``The reluctance of the BoJ to join the more aggressive moves of the Fed has hit risk appetite,'' analysts led by Hans-Guenter Redeker, London-based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a client note. The move suggests the Japanese central bank ``is nowhere near ready to introduce quantitative easing steps.''
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told a press briefing that the Japanese economy had clearly worsened this month and that three dissenters had wanted a quarter-point cut. One favored no reduction and four voted for the move.
``We remain concerned about British pound given the deteriorating economic outlook in the U.K., and recent signals from the BoE suggest scope for more aggressive easing than previously,'' wrote New York-based Sophia Drossos, a strategist at Morgan Stanley in a research note yesterday.

EUR/USD having tested a mark $1,2700, the pair has raised in area $1,2740.

GBP/USD having opened in the field of $1,6400, the pair has shown low in area $1,6150 where it continues to be consolidated further.
USD/JPY the yen could become stronger up to level Y96,30, then скорретировалась in area Y97,80.

US data starts at 1230GMT with the third-quarter 2008 Employment Cost Index, personal income, expenditures and PCE core price index for September. Personal income is expected to rise only 0.1% in September, as payrolls fell 159,000, hourly earnings rose only 0.2% and the average workweek was cut 0.1 to 33.6 hours. PCE is expected to fall 0.2% in
September, as retail motor vehicle sales fell 3.8% and non-auto retail sales fell 0.6% on widespread declines. The core PCE price index is forecast to rise 0.1%.The ECI is expected to rise 0.7% in the third quarter, same as the previous two quarters.
At 1345 GMT the Chicago PMI is due, which is expected to fall to a reading of 48.0 in October from 56.7 in September . At 1400GMT, the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be unrevised at 57.5 in late-October.






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