03.11.2008 12:55

EU COMMISSION: New fcasts show negative 3Q EMU GDP, implying recession

-Risks to GDP forecast significantly on downside
-Risks to inflation outlook more balanced as oil price drops
-Eurozone 2009 GDP forecast +0.1% (vs. 1.5%); 09 HICP 2.2% (unchanged)
-Germany 2009 GDP forecast flat (vs. +1.5); 09 HICP 2.1% (1.8%)
-UK 2009 GDP -1.0% (+1.6% previous fcast); 09 HICP 1.9% (2.2%)

EU Almunia: "economic climate has significantly darkened"
-Labor market conditions to deteriorate markedly in 2009

-EU forecasts assume oil at $104/barrel in 2008; $85.7 in 2009
-EU forecasts assume euro-dollar at $1.48 in 2008; $1.36 in 2009






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