"The retail report had a negative impact on our expectation for the
Q3 GDP revision as well as our tracking estimate for Q4. We now see Q3
being revised to -1.0% (vs our prior expectation of -0.8% and the
original figure of -0.3%). Consumption now appears to have declined
3.3% in Q3. In Q4, we see GDP tracking at -3.7% (vs -3.5% previously)
with consumption at -2.4% (vs -2.0% previously)."